Thank you, Floyd Mayweather’s rib.
Before Mayweather got hurt and postponed his comeback fight with Juan Manuel Marquez from July to today, September 19, I was mildly interested in the fight. I looked forward to Mayweather’s comeback but I initially thought that Marquez had little chance and the fight itself was unlikely to inspire much interest.
Then Mayweather hurt his rib. Rumors abound about whether a sparring partner had cracked the previously unbreakable Pretty Boy. Floyd’s camp refused to offer more than a vague explanation for the injury, further fueling speculation. Boxing suffered a difficult summer sullied by tragic deaths, cancelled fights and controversy.
Then 24/7 started, featuring more Mayweather family drama, Nacho Beristain dropping more F bombs than Quentin Tarantino’s non-union Mexican equivalent, and, most memorably, Juan Manuel Marquez teaching us what “bebo urina” means. Then showing us.
Beyond that, once the predicted uproar over Mayweather fighting another undersized opponent subsided, the intrigue of the matchup began to take shape. Smaller man or no, Marquez represents the most technically skilled opponent of Mayweather’s career. If Mayweather has a rib injury, Marquez will exploit it. If Mayweather is rusty, Marquez will exploit that.
By taking what is credited by most boxing writers as the path of least resistence, Mayweather has, somewhat illogically, taken the riskiest course. Had Mayweather come back against the type of true welterweight that everyone (including me) wants to see him fight – Miguel Cotto and Shane Mosley come immediately to mind – a loss would be excused by the layoff and by the caliber of the challenge. Fairly or not, Marquez is not viewed as the same level of challenge that Cotto or Mosley would be. A loss to Cotto or Mosley would have been devastating to Mayweather personally because he cherishes his undefeated record but the boxing world would probably embrace him for finally fighting the challengers we desire most. A loss to Marquez will devastate Mayweather and his fans and fuel the large and rabid segment of boxing fans that dislike his flamboyance and arrogance out of the ring and his cautious style and choice of opponents between the ropes. A loss to Cotto or Mosley would be a setback. A loss to Marquez would be a catastrophe.
On the flip side, Marquez has nothing to lose. In fact, in a sense he has already won. He will receive the largest purse of his career, bolstered another $600,000 when Mayweather came in two pounds above the contracted 144-pound limit. He is receiving by far the most mainstream US media exposure of his career. He managed to one-up Mayweather on 24/7 with his unusual drinking habits. If he beats Mayweather it would be a legendary upset and one of the greatest achievements by a Mexican boxer in history. Marquez would likely elevate in popularity with the Mexican boxing fans to the closest thing to Julio Cesar Chavez since the legend retired. A third showdown with Manny Pacquiao would suddenly be the most anticipated fight in boxing.
Unfortunately for Marquez and his fans, I don’t see it happening. I have tremendous respect for Marquez as a fighter but I think the size, speed, and matchup with Floyd will present too many problems for him. Floyd is likely to start slow and Marquez could pick up some early rounds with his activity and accurate punches. The middle rounds will likely see Mayweather finding the holes in Marquez’s defense and exploiting them. I think Mayweather will have his best success with his counter left hook, one of his best punches. In the late rounds, I see the wars that litter Marquez’s resume bearing fruit as Mayweather lands more and more hard, accurate punches. I am tempted to predict a late Mayweather knockout but I respect Marquez’s heart and durability too much to pull the trigger. Ultimately, however, I think Floyd will take a close but clear decision in a technical and highly skilled fight that will nonetheless be fairly entertaining.
